Private M&A: Year in Review and Outlook

Looking back on 2024 in private M&A, several notable trends stand out. In a year generally marked by caution in dealmaking, the Canadian market saw heightened regulatory scrutiny, the growth of private capital financing and the effects of a mature representation and warranty insurance industry.

We’ve distilled these trends and explained why many observers are optimistic about private dealmaking in 2025.

1. Deal pace and volume in 2024 reflected uncertainty around interest rates and inflation, the U.S. election, global instability and tighter credit markets. Volume was lower than historical levels, although several significant transactions occurred. Many deals also progressed more slowly due to increased buyer diligence and challenging negotiations around valuations and other key deal terms.
2. Regulatory scrutiny increased across the board, from competition, antitrust and foreign investment to prudential and industry regulators. This has lengthened interim periods between signing and closing, increased the need for legal expertise and raised execution and integration costs. While some anticipate relief from pro-business U.S. policies under President Trump, Canadian regulators show no signs of easing up soon.
3. Private capital financing is gaining traction in Canada. This trend, which has taken a firm hold in the U.S. in recent years, has spurred the growth of some industry-specific private debt funds north of the border. It will be interesting to see whether Canadian domestic funds form more generalized debt funds to fuel private equity activity.
4. Representation and warranty insurance is now commonly used by both private sponsors and strategics in M&A deals. The maturation of this industry has given dealmakers improved access to better products, with more providers and brokers available. The corresponding increase in insurance claims has provided valuable data that’s helping dealmakers identify providers with superior service and claims processes.
5. What’s ahead for 2025? Experts predict a significant uptick in private M&A deal flow, driven by pent-up demand and supply, as well as untapped capital among private equity firms. According to a recent KPMG survey, “nine in 10 CEOs of large Canadian organizations are considering making acquisitions in the next three years to help boost growth,” and 41% of CEOs are expecting to make large acquisitions. 

Have more than five minutes? Listen to our podcast episode on this topic or contact any member of our Private M&A team to learn more.